[BoxOfficeTheory Presale Tracking](https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31569-the-box-office-buzz-tracking-and-pre-sale-thread/page/650/#comments)
[**USA Showtimes As of March 8**](https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31569-the-box-office-buzz-tracking-and-pre-sale-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4655675)
**DOMESTIC PRESALES**
**American Society of Magical Negroes Thursday Comp/Prediction: $0.19M/$0.23M**
– abracadabra1998 ($0.17M Thursday Comp. Even as I think this is underindexing here, still dreadful. Let’s go with $200k, +/- 50 as a final prediction.)
– katnisscinnaplex ($0.21M Thursday Comp. Final prediction: 250k.)
**Arthur the King Thursday Comp/Prediction: $0.35M/$0.45M**
– abracadabra1998 ($0.32M Thursday Comp. I’ll go with $500k, +/-100 as a final prediction. Very good final day. Way better growth rates than all of my other comps (of course that is easy to do starting from such a low point). My opinion that this will likely underindex here.)
– DAJK (Authur the King isn’t playing ANYWHERE on Vancouver Island.)
– el sid (I would go with high single digits OW.)
– katnisscinnaplex ($0.37M Thursday comp. 400k for my final prediction.)
**Love Lies Bleeding Thursday Comp/Prediction: $0.47M/$0.48M**
– abracadabra1998 (sales look really solid just from a cursory glance here!)
– el sid (I go with 450k.)
– katnisscinnaplex ($0.47M Thursday Comp. Final prediction: 500k.)
**One Life Thursday Comp/Prediction: $0.09M/$0.10M**
– katnisscinnaplex ($0.09M Thursday Comp. Final prediction: 100k.)
**Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire Average Thursday Comp *assuming $4M for keysersoze123*: $5.04M**
– abracadabra1998 ($4.5M Thursday Comp.)
– Charlie Jatinder ($3.9M Thursday MTC2 Comp. In MiniTC2, the Dune Part 2 comp for GBFE will be $1.8M *[(I don’t know what day Charlie is referring to)]* and here Dune was an under-performer. MTC1 comp for Dune Part 2 be $3.2M for THU alone & $2.6M including EA (March 10).
– dallas ($10.57M Thursday comp. $40M+ opening might be possible. Probably over indexing in my area though due to fan rush. I wouldn’t take this number seriously at all (March 3).)
– el sid (Tickets sold in 7 theaters: 161. Comps (both films counted for Friday): Uncharted had 276 sold tickets with 16 days left and G: A had 457 sold tickets with 5 days left = 34% at the moment with 12 days left for Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire to come closer or overtake.)
– Inceptionzq ($5.95M Denver+Drafthouse+Emagine Thursday Comp. $6.15M Denver Thursday Comp. $5.59M/$17.01M/$26.53M/$19.94M Drafthouse Thursday/Friday/Saturday/Sunday Comp. $6.10M/$23.82M/$22.54M/$19.69M Emagine Thursday/Friday/Saturday/Sunday Comp.)
– jeffthehat ($5.32M Combined Thursday Comp. $4.03M Malco and $6.6M Indiana Thursday comp. $7.7M/$11.8M Malco Friday/Saturday Comp.
– katnisscinnaplex ($3.76M Thursday comp.)
– keysersoze123 (Friday pace went down a bit and I would have thought by this point Friday would be way higher to have good IM. Unless we see some big acceleration this week I think its going to be below afterlife for both previews/Friday. One thing going for this movie is it will have $5 deal for Tmobile/Atom next week. For now I am thinking 4ish previews and low/mid 30s OW (March 12). Dune 2 comps are under $3M (March 11).)
– leoh (Here in NY some theaters with PLFs halls have screenings almost sold out. It’ll take all Dolby Cinema halls and most of IMAX screens.)
– Porthos ($5.25M Thursday comp. So, like, the most likely result is Afterlife +/- a tiny amount (plus ATP hike). Except for the T-16 day, the daily sales for GBFE have been… Not Too Bad (Mar. 8).)
– TheFlatLannister ($4.51M Thursday comp. $6.68M Thursday Orlando Comp. Another big increase (March 10).)
– vafrow ($2.6M Thursday comp. Already behind GxK in raw sales. Starting to fade pretty fast. Two days of comps falling pretty significantly (March 12).)
**Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire Thursday Comp *assuming $9M for keysersoze123*: $8.38M**
– abracadabra1998 ($5.31M Thursday comp. Not super helpful other than that BoSS Thursday comp ($8.3M), which did go down, though that movie was hot as hell here throughout its whole pre-sales run. Also really healthy non-MTC1 % right off the gate.)
– Charlie Jatinder ($8.3M MiniTC2 Thursday Comp.)
– katnisscinnaplex ($8.0M Thursday Comp.)
– keysersoze123 (Its quite good. 80% of Dune. But that wont be a good comp as this will be more backloaded than Dune. I am expecting 9ish previews and 60-65m OW.)
– leoh (Talking about NY AMC theaters, nothing suggests GxB can get anywhere close to a 60M OW. GxK did well within first 3/4 hours of sales but didn’t keep up the pace. Too early to take any conclusion of course but I’d say it seems it will open with a BO similar to the OW of 2021 and 2019 monster-verse movies (March 13))
– Porthos ($8.4M Day 1 Thursday Comp. 92% of Dune Part 2’s Thursday Day 1 Sales. Fairly good start. In Sacramento the PLF:All Showings ratio is 36:120. Goes up a bit depending on how one counts DBOX seating. )
– TheFlatLannister ($4.67M Thursday Comp. Several showings still listed as “sold-out” so sales will be depressed for now.)
– vafrow ($15.0M Thursday Comp. For entire GTA region, not getting any regular screens for Thursday previews, and only a handful matinee regular screenings over the weekend. PLF is either Dolby (3D or regular), IMAX, 4DX or VIP theatres.)
**The Monkey Man Thursday Comp: $1.75M**
– abracadabra1998 ($1.75M Thursday Comp. Good numbers but it’s quite literally all Alamo and MTC1 sales and I am certainly overindexing.)
– el sid (Nice start.)
– jeffthehat (Fall Guy starts about 2x Monkey Man first day in sales and shows.)
– keysersoze123 (Fall Guy and Monkey Man have almost identical Thursday preview presales at this point. Fall Guy does have Wednesday IMAX Early Access though. (March 12).)
– vafrow (The initial reactions didn’t do too much. This will probably only see activity as we get closer (March 13). Not bad.)
**The Fall Guy EA+Thursday Comp (DO NOT TAKE SERIOUSLY): $4.31M**
– abracadabra1998 ($4.11M Thursday Comp. Really solid start here. MTC1 driving all Thursday sales and Alamo driving around 90% of EA, so heads up: this market might overperform on Day 1 against other Alamo-less markets.)
– jeffthehat (Fall Guy starts about 2x Monkey Man first day in sales and shows.)
– katnisscinnaplex ($1.17M Thursday Comp.)
– keysersoze123 (Fall Guy and Monkey Man have almost identical Thursday preview presales at this point. Fall Guy does have Wednesday IMAX Early Access though. (March 12).)
– Porthos (That it’s sold anything at all is noteworthy. Beyond that? “Eh.”)
– vafrow ($7.65M Wednesday EA+Thursday Comp. Still not dealing with numbers big enough to be useful.)
**Domestic Calendar Dates:**
– (Mar. 14) Thursday previews [Arthur the King + The American Society of Magical Negroes + Love Lies Bleeding+ One Life]
– (Mar. 20) Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire Social Media and Review Embargo Lifts (10 AM EST)
– (Mar. 21) Thursday previews [Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire]
– (Mar. 22) Opening Friday screenings [Luca]
– (Mar. 25) Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire Social Media Embargo lifts (10:30 PM PST)
– (Mar. 28) Thursday previews [Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire + In the Land of Saints and Sinners]
– (Apr. 4) Thursday previews [Monkey Man + The First Omen]
– (Apr. 8) Civil War Wednesday IMAX Early Access
– (Apr. 11) Thursday previews [Civil War + Don’t Tell Mom the Babysitter’s Dead + Shrek 2 20th Anniversary]
– (Apr. 12) Challengers Presales Start
– (Apr. 18) Thursday previews [Abigail + The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare + Spy x Family Code: White + Villains Inc. + Wildfire: The Legend of the Cherokee Ghost Horse + Sasquatch Sunset]
– (Apr. 25) Thursday previews [Challengers + Unsung Hero]
– (May 1) Fall Guy Wednesday IMAX Early Access
– (May 2) Thursday previews [The Fall Guy + Star Wars Ep. I: The Phantom Menace + Tarot]
**Presale Tracking Posts:**
[March 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1b53knv/domestic_presale_tracking_march_2_thursday_comps/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
[March 5](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/s/12lJw0gQt5)
[March 7](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/s/pt6IEv2x0J)
[March 9](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1bb4z8p/domestic_presale_tracking_march_9_thursday_comps/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
[March 12](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1bddzll/domestic_presale_tracking_march_12_thursday_comps/?ref=share&ref_source=link)
Note: I have removed tracking data that has not been updated for 2 weeks. I think there is value in keeping data for a week or two but at a certain point they start to lose their value and should not be treated the same as more recent tracking data.
Source: self.boxoffice
